Shocks are caused by the picture captured in the continuation of the survey conducted by authoritative and independent statistician Nikolaos Kardoulas for the Region of Crete (presented yesterday by BN), portraying a political landscape vast from that of the June 2023 national elections and foreshadowing an even more distinct backdrop for the 2027 elections. If polls were opened today, New Democracy in Crete registers at 19.3%, PASOK at 17.5%, and ELAS at 15%, while remaining parties and undecided voters create an extremely fragmented electoral landscape. However, the true interest lies not only in percentages. It resides in major voter shifts, which show that behind numbers lies a much broader political realignment.
ND loses half its 2023 electoral base
The most characteristic finding concerns New Democracy voters from the 2023 elections. Barely 50% state today that they would choose New Democracy again. From there, migrating votes are moving in various political directions. 9% toward PASOK, 7% toward a potential Samaras party, 6% toward Symmachia Ellinon, and another 6% toward Voice of Reason. This picture demonstrates that erosion of ND's voter base, according to this specific survey, does not translate into a single direction. Voters not remaining with the governing party appear scattered across distinct political spectrums.
Symmachia Ellinon at center of voter movement
And right here lies the main focus of the measurement regarding Symmachia Ellinon. The party appears to gather voters from a strikingly diverse electoral pool. Among those stating today they would vote for it, 46% originate from Spartans, 14% from Greek Solution, 14% from Voice of Reason, 11% from citizens who did not vote in 2023, 10% from Course of Freedom, and 6% from New Democracy. In other words, its voter base, as reflected in research, does not stem from a single political origin. Instead, it is formed through multiple and varied electoral trajectories. Particular importance attaches to the fact that Symmachia Ellinon appears to draw votes from both right-wing patriotic parties and voters who abstained from the 2023 ballot box or chose opposing political forces, such as Course of Freedom, a left-wing party.
SYRIZA loses to ELAS
Another major shift is recorded among 2023 SYRIZA voters. According to measurements, 46% of them head toward ELAS today, while only 12% remain with SYRIZA. At the same time, 10% move toward PASOK. This picture captures fluid dynamics in the Center-Left and significantly explains current support for ELAS standing at 15%. On the other hand, among 2023 PASOK voters, 53% state they remain loyal, while 17% move toward ELAS and 4% toward Greek Solution.
Reservoir of undecideds and non-voters
Particular weight falls upon the category of citizens who abstained in 2023. Here the situation remains fluid, as 37% declare themselves undecided voters. Concurrently, shifts are recorded toward Symmachia Ellinon, Course of Freedom, ELAS, and Voice of Reason. This finding carries weight because it reveals that a substantial portion of the electorate remains available and has not arrived at a final choice.
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